Some on Wall Street are digesting the slew of rumors, company PR and comments, and just the typical barn storming of industry and Wall Street pablum about how the acquisition by Softbank of Sprint-Clearwire may go down with Softbank and Sprint investors. Softbank stock has taken a considerable hit on news of the merger. Meanwhile, a few financial analysts have speculated that Sprint investors may raise objections to the deal and push for a higher price or sales of a lower percentage of the company. Meanwhile hte prospects of Sprint being acquired has shot up hopes among Clearwire investors which includes speculation of much higher price for the stock or outright acquisition being part of the deal.
Softbank investors may be having second thoughts but SB management is likely to move ahead imo.
They have a chance of capitalizing on a chain of events that have reached a pivot point. This 'pivot point' requires renewed level of concentrated efforts and investment to yield success for Sprint, Clearwire or Softbank as separate entities. However, the consolidation of technologies, markets, consumer devices, and, importantly for Clearlywired, the untapped potential of 'True 4G' technology that all parties can take advantage and are otherwise conspirators into turning into viable leverage, pushes these companies along the same path... which is to a large degree 'sink or swim'.
Softbank knows how to use 2.6GHz properly... not brain dead. They look at Clearwire and see a dumb pipe waiting for the spark of more intelligence (plus capital of course) to convert it into something that makes rather than disposes of money.
Clearwire stockholders loss in the potential exploitation of 140MHz of 2.6GHz spectrum has the potential to be turned into Softbank's gain. Sprint, as much as they appear on the right course, is capital and spectrum constrained... in a world in which spectrum without the means to exploit it is a Swiss bank with the vault door left open.
Sprint almost has to take 'what's behind door number three' or they will end up with losses in years to come... eventually leading to their own BK. If not, then they will be grinding along as the capital constrained company facing three better funded rivals. PCS/T-Mobile has been weak but as a consolidated entity under DT they pose a serious threat to sprint. Given that, Sprint had not other choice.. be significantly acquired or face dire prospects of becoming dethroned as number 3... in a batlle based on price as well as market and spectrum position.
In Maravedis' opinion, Softbank would be foolish to walk away. We see this as a fair risk among a turbulent set of circumstances. A contrarian viewppint, one we cannot dismiss, is that the western economies may spell several years of contraction despite the dynamics of growth of WBB/4G ICT. Even so, one of the few boat anchors of growth will be 4G ICT: sink or swim